Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bristol 13.43 9.58 3.80 Bath 8.63 5.55 3.10 Saracens 6.19 9.68 -3.50 Northampton Saints 2.59 7.50 -4.90 Leicester Tigers 1.21 3.27 -2.10 Sale Sharks 1.10 4.73 -3.60 Gloucester -0.89 -9.04 8.10 Harlequins -1.33 -2.73 1.40 Exeter Chiefs -2.96 1.23 -4.20 Newcastle Falcons -17.22 -19.02 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Dec 21 14 – 0 5.20 TRUE 2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Dec 22 24 – 54 0.30 FALSE 3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath Dec 22 15 – 40 -17.90 TRUE 4 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 22 28 – 10 8.70 TRUE 5 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Dec 23 39 – 24 8.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Dec 28 Bristol 18.80 2 Bath vs. Saracens Dec 29 Bath 8.90 3 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 29 Northampton Saints 26.30 4 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 29 Harlequins 4.00 5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Dec 30 Exeter Chiefs 4.40

 

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