Top 14 Predictions for Round 14

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 10.82 8.76 2.10 Toulon 5.92 5.32 0.60 Bordeaux Begles 5.52 3.96 1.60 Stade Rochelais 3.34 4.85 -1.50 Racing 92 1.47 2.75 -1.30 Clermont 1.26 0.41 0.90 Montpellier 1.16 -0.96 2.10 Bayonne 1.08 -1.69 2.80 Stade Francais -0.03 1.86 -1.90 Section Paloise -0.69 1.38 -2.10 Lyon -0.80 -0.18 -0.60 Castres Olympique -0.95 -0.09 -0.90 USA Perpignan -3.30 -0.66 -2.60 Vannes -9.06 -10.00 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 91 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bayonne vs. Castres Olympique Dec 29 33 – 12 8.60 TRUE 2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Dec 29 21 – 17 7.50 TRUE 3 Clermont vs. Montpellier Dec 29 18 – 22 7.30 FALSE 4 Section Paloise vs. Vannes Dec 29 48 – 24 14.70 TRUE 5 Racing 92 vs. Lyon Dec 30 25 – 25 9.60 FALSE 6 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Dec 30 38 – 23 16.60 TRUE 7 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Rochelais Dec 30 21 – 13 0.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise Jan 05 Castres Olympique 4.60 2 Lyon vs. USA Perpignan Jan 05 Lyon 8.90 3 Montpellier vs. Bayonne Jan 05 Montpellier 5.50 4 Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles Jan 05 Stade Francais 0.70 5 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 05 Stade Toulousain -0.60 6 Toulon vs. Racing 92 Jan 05 Toulon 9.90 7 Vannes vs. Clermont Jan 06 Clermont -2.60

 

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