Top 14 Predictions for Round 15

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 10.63 8.76 1.90 Bordeaux Begles 6.53 3.96 2.60 Toulon 6.05 5.32 0.70 Stade Rochelais 3.49 4.85 -1.40 Montpellier 2.05 -0.96 3.00 Racing 92 1.31 2.75 -1.40 Clermont 1.17 0.41 0.80 Bayonne 0.15 -1.69 1.80 Section Paloise -0.70 1.38 -2.10 Castres Olympique -0.96 -0.09 -0.90 Stade Francais -0.98 1.86 -2.80 Lyon -1.00 -0.18 -0.80 USA Perpignan -3.11 -0.66 -2.50 Vannes -8.92 -10.00 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 98 matches played, 76 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.6%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise Jan 05 24 – 19 4.60 TRUE 2 Lyon vs. USA Perpignan Jan 05 17 – 12 8.90 TRUE 3 Montpellier vs. Bayonne Jan 05 42 – 10 5.50 TRUE 4 Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles Jan 05 19 – 46 0.70 FALSE 5 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 05 22 – 19 -0.60 FALSE 6 Toulon vs. Racing 92 Jan 05 36 – 24 9.90 TRUE 7 Vannes vs. Clermont Jan 06 19 – 20 -2.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon Jan 26 Bordeaux Begles 14.00 2 Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique Jan 26 Racing 92 9.90 3 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Jan 26 Section Paloise 6.50 4 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Jan 26 Stade Toulousain 14.90 5 USA Perpignan vs. Bayonne Jan 26 USA Perpignan 3.50 6 Vannes vs. Stade Francais Jan 26 Stade Francais -1.30 7 Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais Jan 27 Toulon 8.80

 

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