United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 15.79 12.09 3.70 Bulls 9.21 8.83 0.40 Glasgow 8.52 9.39 -0.90 Munster 4.82 9.28 -4.50 Stormers 3.78 6.75 -3.00 Lions 3.41 6.73 -3.30 Edinburgh 1.95 0.09 1.90 Ulster 1.49 2.52 -1.00 Sharks 1.40 -2.94 4.30 Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00 Connacht -0.91 -0.76 -0.10 Ospreys -2.29 -2.51 0.20 Scarlets -3.54 -10.65 7.10 Benetton -4.69 1.02 -5.70 Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00 Cardiff Rugby -7.46 -2.55 -4.90 Zebre -11.11 -16.17 5.10 Dragons -14.65 -15.41 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Glasgow vs. Connacht Jan 25 22 – 19 17.00 TRUE 2 Ospreys vs. Benetton Jan 25 43 – 0 2.80 TRUE 3 Lions vs. Bulls Jan 26 22 – 37 -1.30 TRUE 4 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Jan 26 30 – 24 -1.70 FALSE 5 Leinster vs. Stormers Jan 26 36 – 12 15.70 TRUE 6 Cardiff Rugby vs. Sharks Jan 26 22 – 42 -0.60 TRUE 7 Dragons vs. Munster Jan 26 19 – 38 -12.50 TRUE 8 Ulster vs. Zebre Jan 27 14 – 15 21.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 09 Bulls -2.90

 

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