Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bath 14.06 5.55 8.50 Northampton Saints 5.92 7.50 -1.60 Bristol 5.33 9.58 -4.30 Sale Sharks 4.32 4.73 -0.40 Leicester Tigers 1.65 3.27 -1.60 Saracens 1.42 9.68 -8.30 Gloucester 0.77 -9.04 9.80 Harlequins -0.24 -2.73 2.50 Exeter Chiefs -2.16 1.23 -3.40 Newcastle Falcons -20.32 -19.02 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.5%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Jan 25 22 – 19 -0.30 FALSE 2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Jan 26 31 – 22 1.40 TRUE 3 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 26 38 – 31 5.30 TRUE 4 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 27 55 – 35 35.20 TRUE 5 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Jan 27 23 – 32 -1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Mar 22 Sale Sharks -18.10 2 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 23 Bristol 14.00 3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 23 Northampton Saints 10.80 4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 23 Saracens 8.20 5 Bath vs. Gloucester Mar 24 Bath 19.80

 

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