Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Western Province 6.10 3.43 2.70 Lions 2.37 0.07 2.30 Sharks 2.26 5.09 -2.80 Cheetahs -1.39 0.33 -1.70 Blue Bulls -2.18 -0.74 -1.40 Pumas -5.64 -10.00 4.40 Griquas -7.31 -7.49 0.20 Kings -13.52 -10.00 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Kings vs. Blue Bulls Sep 12 13 – 28 -5.10 TRUE 2 Griquas vs. Pumas Sep 13 31 – 27 3.20 TRUE 3 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Sep 13 30 – 30 1.60 FALSE 4 Lions vs. Western Province Sep 13 35 – 33 1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Lions vs. Pumas Sep 19 Lions 13.00 2 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 20 Western Province 18.40 3 Blue Bulls vs. Sharks Sep 20 Blue Bulls 0.60 4 Kings vs. Cheetahs Sep 20 Cheetahs -7.10