Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Western Province 6.92 3.43 3.50 Lions 4.30 0.07 4.20 Sharks 3.44 5.09 -1.60 Cheetahs -1.79 0.33 -2.10 Blue Bulls -1.98 -0.74 -1.20 Pumas -6.17 -10.00 3.80 Griquas -9.54 -7.49 -2.00 Kings -14.49 -10.00 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Sep 26 23 – 31 7.00 FALSE 2 Griquas vs. Lions Sep 27 8 – 46 -5.10 TRUE 3 Pumas vs. Western Province Sep 26 23 – 37 -7.20 TRUE 4 Sharks vs. Kings Sep 27 53 – 24 22.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Griquas vs. Kings Oct 04 Griquas 10.00 2 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Oct 04 Pumas 0.80 3 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Oct 04 Western Province -3.70 4 Sharks vs. Lions Oct 04 Sharks 4.10