Currie Cup Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Western Province 7.02 3.43 3.60 Lions 4.39 0.07 4.30 Sharks 3.35 5.09 -1.70 Blue Bulls -0.18 -0.74 0.60 Cheetahs -1.89 0.33 -2.20 Pumas -7.97 -10.00 2.00 Griquas -8.90 -7.49 -1.40 Kings -15.13 -10.00 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Sharks vs. Lions Oct 03 26 – 23 4.10 TRUE 2 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Oct 03 6 – 37 0.80 FALSE 3 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Oct 04 29 – 34 -3.70 TRUE 4 Griquas vs. Kings Oct 04 45 – 25 10.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Kings vs. Pumas Oct 10 Pumas -2.20 2 Lions vs. Cheetahs Oct 11 Lions 11.30 3 Western Province vs. Sharks Oct 11 Western Province 8.70 4 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Oct 11 Blue Bulls 13.70