Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Western Province 5.04 4.93 0.10 Lions 3.84 3.04 0.80 Sharks 2.79 3.43 -0.60 Blue Bulls 1.27 0.17 1.10 Cheetahs -2.27 -1.75 -0.50 Pumas -6.27 -6.47 0.20 Griquas -8.49 -7.81 -0.70 Kings -9.80 -9.44 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Lions vs. Pumas Aug 14 44 – 27 13.20 TRUE 2 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 14 36 – 12 12.60 TRUE 3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 15 9 – 3 11.30 TRUE 4 Sharks vs. Kings Aug 15 33 – 25 16.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Kings vs. Pumas Aug 21 Pumas -0.00 2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 21 Cheetahs -2.70 3 Sharks vs. Lions Aug 22 Sharks 2.40 4 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Aug 22 Western Province -0.30