Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Western Province 4.60 4.93 -0.30 Lions 4.27 3.04 1.20 Sharks 2.36 3.43 -1.10 Blue Bulls 1.71 0.17 1.50 Cheetahs -1.81 -1.75 -0.10 Pumas -6.17 -6.47 0.30 Griquas -8.95 -7.81 -1.10 Kings -9.90 -9.44 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Kings vs. Pumas Aug 21 13 – 15 -0.00 TRUE 2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 21 9 – 31 -2.70 TRUE 3 Sharks vs. Lions Aug 22 16 – 31 2.40 FALSE 4 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Aug 22 47 – 29 -0.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Pumas vs. Lions Aug 28 Lions -6.90 2 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Aug 28 Western Province -2.90 3 Griquas vs. Blue Bulls Aug 29 Blue Bulls -7.20 4 Kings vs. Sharks Aug 29 Sharks -8.80