Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Lions 4.79 3.04 1.70 Western Province 4.32 4.93 -0.60 Sharks 2.12 3.43 -1.30 Blue Bulls 2.05 0.17 1.90 Cheetahs -1.53 -1.75 0.20 Pumas -6.70 -6.47 -0.20 Griquas -9.29 -7.81 -1.50 Kings -9.66 -9.44 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Pumas vs. Lions Aug 28 11 – 41 -6.90 TRUE 2 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Aug 28 28 – 21 -2.90 FALSE 3 Griquas vs. Blue Bulls Aug 29 32 – 46 -7.20 TRUE 4 Kings vs. Sharks Aug 29 20 – 24 -8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Blue Bulls vs. Cheetahs Sep 04 Blue Bulls 7.10 2 Sharks vs. Pumas Sep 05 Sharks 12.30 3 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 05 Western Province 17.10 4 Lions vs. Kings Sep 05 Lions 18.00