Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Lions 9.55 9.69 -0.10 Western Province 5.25 6.46 -1.20 Blue Bulls 1.79 1.80 -0.00 Sharks 1.79 -0.60 2.40 Cheetahs 0.90 -3.42 4.30 Griquas -11.01 -12.45 1.40 Pumas -11.15 -8.62 -2.50 Cavaliers -12.27 -10.00 -2.30 Kings -16.30 -14.29 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 19 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Cavaliers vs. Pumas Sep 02 25 – 22 2.20 TRUE 2 Cheetahs vs. Kings Sep 02 57 – 25 19.20 TRUE 3 Blue Bulls vs. Lions Sep 03 31 – 17 -6.50 FALSE 4 Western Province vs. Sharks Sep 03 34 – 27 7.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Lions vs. Western Province Sep 09 Lions 7.80 2 Griquas vs. Cavaliers Sep 10 Griquas 4.80 3 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Sep 10 Sharks 4.40 4 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Sep 10 Blue Bulls -9.40