Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Lions 11.37 9.69 1.70 Blue Bulls 4.74 1.80 2.90 Cheetahs 4.34 -3.42 7.80 Western Province 4.14 6.46 -2.30 Sharks 2.65 -0.60 3.30 Griquas -11.70 -12.45 0.80 Pumas -12.99 -8.62 -4.40 Cavaliers -14.16 -10.00 -4.20 Kings -19.82 -14.29 -5.50 TBC

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 31 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Cavaliers vs. Blue Bulls Sep 23 26 – 48 -13.80 TRUE 2 Griquas vs. Western Province Sep 23 31 – 52 -11.10 TRUE 3 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Sep 23 10 – 52 -10.70 TRUE 4 Kings vs. Lions Sep 24 7 – 71 -23.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Lions vs. Sharks Sep 30 Lions 12.20 2 Western Province vs. Cavaliers Sep 30 Western Province 21.80 4 Pumas vs. Kings Sep 30 Pumas 10.30 3 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Oct 01 Cheetahs 19.50