Currie Cup Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Lions 11.35 9.69 1.70 Cheetahs 5.33 -3.42 8.70 Blue Bulls 4.74 1.80 2.90 Western Province 3.05 6.46 -3.40 Sharks 2.67 -0.60 3.30 Griquas -12.69 -12.45 -0.20 Cavaliers -13.07 -10.00 -3.10 Pumas -13.22 -8.62 -4.60 Kings -19.59 -14.29 -5.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Lions vs. Sharks Sep 30 28 – 16 12.20 TRUE 2 Western Province vs. Cavaliers Sep 30 30 – 28 21.80 TRUE 3 Pumas vs. Kings Sep 30 38 – 30 10.30 TRUE 4 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Oct 01 63 – 26 19.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Oct 15 Blue Bulls 5.20 2 Cheetahs vs. Lions Oct 15 Lions -2.50