Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Wellington 12.13 8.72 3.40 Canterbury 6.95 9.44 -2.50 Waikato 4.58 3.71 0.90 Bay of Plenty 4.50 4.55 -0.10 Hawke’s Bay 4.46 5.12 -0.70 Taranaki 3.44 -2.98 6.40 Tasman 3.12 2.20 0.90 North Harbour 3.06 7.75 -4.70 Auckland 2.76 2.15 0.60 Otago -3.26 0.62 -3.90 Northland -4.29 -3.92 -0.40 Counties Manukau -5.22 -7.44 2.20 Southland -10.05 -12.27 2.20 Manawatu -18.73 -14.18 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Auckland vs. Northland Sep 29 27 – 26 11.70 TRUE 2 Waikato vs. Canterbury Sep 30 37 – 35 0.20 TRUE 3 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 30 18 – 20 12.80 FALSE 4 Taranaki vs. North Harbour Sep 30 54 – 21 -1.00 FALSE 5 Bay of Plenty vs. Tasman Oct 01 41 – 12 0.60 TRUE 6 Otago vs. Counties Manukau Oct 01 38 – 22 3.00 TRUE 7 Manawatu vs. Southland Oct 01 12 – 37 -2.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Canterbury vs. Auckland Oct 06 Canterbury 7.20 2 Wellington vs. Waikato Oct 07 Wellington 10.60 3 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 07 Taranaki 3.30 4 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 08 Bay of Plenty 3.00

 

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