French downgrade by S&P imminent and ECB is selling bonds!
Mike Norman Economics 2013-07-07
The word is that S&P will downgrade France and a number of other European countries. Market reaction has been ho-hum. French bond yields have hardly moved. Looks like people think this will play out the same way it did when S&P downgraded the US. Treasury yields fell sharply after that. But is a downgrade of France (and other Euro nations) the same as a downgrade of the US? Absolutely not. European countris are credit sensitive by virtue of the fact that they are not currency issuers. They do need external funding. And here's the kicker...what has the ECB been doing in the last two weeks? Selling bonds! They've sold 50 billion euros worth of bonds in that time, reducing the size of their balance sheet. Looks to me like investors don't know this is happening. Also looks like we're in for another round of funding crisis fears.