Threat modeling for disasters

Environmental hazards

Investigate what sorts of hazards are likely to occur in your region by using available tools. If you can’t trust the tools, talk to people who have been around for a long time about what is likely to happen and how to prepare. Discuss it with neighbors. 

• First, find broad strokes. I’m in the Bay Area, so I look up earthquake hazards at a large level to see where one might occur near me.
• Narrow down to your region. I look up liquefaction zones because that’s what matters in an earthquake.
• We also have wild fires in California, so I find the state’s hazard website, which tells me which areas are protected how against fires and other hazards.
• Floods can happen just about anywhere. Here’s the current way to look up your flooding risk.

There are often environmental justice organizations in each region as well, who will have different maps that include super fund sites you’ll need to be wary of if you can no longer trust that government one. During 2017 we worked with Public Lab to find and combine maps of issues.

Political hazards

Depending on the political climate where you’re at, you may face some challenges to your response organizing work.

• Disinformation – people may try to skew information people are getting in order to further their own political ends. Be aware of who you can trust, and read the pages in here about understanding and combatting disinformation.
• Cops – bullies with power may tell you that you can’t do some of the things you’re doing. Know your rights in your area, and record interactions. And shut the fuck up. Have your local legal team’s number written down and/or ideally memorized.
• Wanna be cops – bullies with guns and a sense of power may come by and try to interrupt what you’re doing. Have a sense of what risks you’re willing to take, and stand your ground whenever possible. Have a crew of folks who are willing to show up against these folks, and have them be on an on call rotation. 

Community hazards

Hopefully you already have a sense of who is in your neighborhood. If you don’t, start knocking on doors with cookies. 

• Narcissists – who is going to show up and look for power in order to look good? They’ll drive things in a way that doesn’t help the community but has their name all over it and looks good for a moment in the news. Not willing to share power or take critical feedback. Should be removed from power and ignored as early as possible. Grey rock that shit. 
• Spontaneous unaffiliated volunteers – people who show up and disrupt your work in order to “help.” Figuring out who is useful and who is going to get in the way is vital. More in that article. 

Community resources

Map your neighborhood for resources folks are willing to provide. I did this by showing up to community events with a form for folks to fill out with what they were willing to provide, posting on community forums, and hosting disaster-themed get togethers for folks who were interested.

• Power – who has generators or solar with batteries
• Water – who has water stored in their house, and is likely to fill up a bathtub
• Food – who keeps a backstop of food at their house and is willing to share
• Medical capabilities – who can help with medical issues
• AED – anyone who keeps an AED in their location
• Disaster experience – those who are trained and/or experienced in disaster response
• Block captains – folks who are willing to check in on each other in a crisis