Africa's unfolding diet transformation: implications for agrifood system employment

Type Journal Article Author Tschirley David L Author Snyder Jason Author Dolislager Michael Author Reardon Thomas Author Haggblade Steven Author Goeb Joseph Author Traub Lulama Author Ejobi Francis Author Meyer Ferdi Editor Dr John B. Kaneene, Dr David L. Tschirley and Dr Isaac Minde Dr Steven Haggblade URL https://doi.org/10.1108/JADEE-01-2015-0003 Volume 5 Issue 2 Pages 102-136 Publication Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies ISSN 2044-0839 Date January 1, 2015 Extra Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing Limited DOI 10.1108/JADEE-01-2015-0003 Accessed 2021-01-29 Abstract Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to understand how the unfolding diet transformation in East and Southern Africa is likely to influence the evolution of employment within its agrifood system (AFS) and between that system and the rest of the economy. To briefly consider implications for education and skill acquisition. Design/methodology/approach– The authors link changing diets to employment structure. The authors then use alternative projections of diet change over 15- and 30-year intervals to develop scenarios on changes in employment structure. Findings– As long as incomes in ESA continue to rise at levels near those of the past decade, the transformation of their economies is likely to advance dramatically. Key features will be: sharp decline in the share of the workforce engaged in farming even as absolute numbers rise modestly, sharp increase in the share engaged in non-farm segments of the AFS, and an even sharper increase in the share engaged outside the AFS. Within the AFS, food preparation away from home is likely to grow most rapidly, followed by food manufacturing, and finally by marketing, transport, and other AFS services. Resource booms in Mozambique and (potentially) Tanzania are the main factor that may change this pattern. Research limitations/implications– Clarifying policy implications requires renewed research given the rapid changes in Africa over the past 15 years. Originality/value– This is the first paper to explicitly link changing diets to changing employment within the AFS.