News & Views: Plan S and Evolving Market Dynamics - Delta Think

"Our previous analysis of Plan S noted that average prices paid per article are falling overall, and we are seeing a convergence between the publication costs of open access and subscription models. Our latest market sizing data has allowed us to refine our models, and to tease out a further nuance in potential changes over time.

The most recent update suggests that open access prices paid are increasing (as before). However, it further suggests that on average prices paid per article for fully OA journals are increasing faster than those paid for hybrid. Fully OA article charges are set to overtake hybrid by around 2020. This is an interesting development since our previous market sizing exercise last year, which suggested that hybrid would continue to outstrip fully OA....

We estimate that Plan S funders now account for roughly 3.5% of articles published globally, compared with 3.3% previously. These include all articles where a Plan S funder is involved, even as part of a jointly-funded or multi-author project. As Plan S funders are OA advocates, they account for a higher than average share of OA output....

A wholesale move from hybrid to fully OA could actually see the value of the market increase, as authors are pushed towards more-expensive options over the coming years...."