US DOE examines a future grid that’s 35 percent wind

Last Thursday, the US Department of energy released a report that examines what would happen if the recent expansion of wind power were accelerated slightly and carried into the future. The report's future envisions a country that receives 10 percent of its electricity from wind by the end of the decade, 20 percent by 2030, and 35 percent by 2050. The study suggests that, by 2050, the country will be saving money on electricity—and it will gain significant additional benefits as well.

The report has mostly made the news because it indicates that wind capacity in the US tripled in the short period between 2009 and 2013, reaching 61GW at the end of that time. Getting to the study's goals will require an additional 160GW by 2030 and a total of 400GW by 2050. That works out to be about 10GW of installations each year—a figure that happens to roughly match the current domestic manufacturing capacity.

Extrapolating current installation rates means that the US should reach a 25 percent capacity by 2050 even if the price of the hardware remains constant. Should wind costs continue to drop as they have, penetration will reach 34 percent—roughly the goal. But if fossil fuel costs rise a bit, wind could be supplying over 40 percent of the nation's electricity in 2050.