Bayesian archeology

The first two panels of yesterday's SMBC:

The last two:

Back in 1979, David Macauley's Motel of the Mysteries had a much longer story to tell about archeologists' presuppositions. Macauley's plot loosely satirizes the work of Heinrich and Sophia Schliemann in excavating Troy, and also echoes Howard Carter's excavation of Tutankhamunn's tomb.

It's 4022, and the amateur archeologist Howard Carson falls into the site of a buried motel, landing in front of room 26, whose "Do Not Disturb" sign he interprets as indicating a holy burial site.

Opening the door, Howard Carson saw "wonderful things", just as Howard Carter did in 1922 when he first peered into King Tut's tomb:

Perhaps the single most important article in the chamber was the ICE (No. 14). This container, whose function evolved from the Canopic jars of earliest times, was designed to preserve, at least symbolically, the major internal organs of the deceased for eternity. The Yanks, who revered long and complex descriptions, called the container an Internal Component Enclosure.

Of course the motel's name turns out to be Toot'n'C'mon :-)…

Among the artefacts revealed is the "Sacred Urn":

This most holy of relics was discovered in the Inner Chamber. It was carved from a single piece of porcelain and then highly polished. The Urn was the focal point of the burial ceremony. The ranking celebrant, kneeling before the Urn, would chant into it while water from the sacred spring flowed in to mix with sheets of Sacred Parchment.

Here's Carson re-enacting this part of the ceremony:

He's wearing the "Sacred Collar":

This article was worn by the ranking celebrant at the final burial ceremony. It is made of the highest quality plasticus, and the workmanship was unequaled. Experts date this collar at A.D. 1979, making it one of the earliest collars ever found. The two hemispherical projections on the solid portion of the collar were apparently merely decorative. The two spiral connectors shown were used to secure the Collar to the Urn after the ceremony.

Carson's wife Harriet is also depicted wearing the Sacred Collar:

Harriet, too, began to feel the strain. In her only recorded outburst, she kicked her way into the lab and insisted that she be allowed to wear some of the priceless treasures. Carson, who was recording what appeared to be impact marks on the top and sides of the altar, realized the urgency of the situation and gave in. For the remainder of the day, Harriet proudly strode around the site wearing the Sacred Collar and matching Headband. She also wore the magnificent plasticus ear ornaments and the exquisite silver chain and pendant.

This picture is an explicit echo of the famous 1873 photograph of Sophia Schiemann wearing Priam's Treasure:

You should read the whole thing — and also the Wikipedia pages for Heinrich and Sophia Schliemann, which lay out some extraordinary Guilded Age history that was mostly news to me.

Note: If you're puzzled about why the cited work is "Bayesian", it's because "Bayes' Rule" tells us how to combine prior probabilities (i.e. preconceptions or background assumptions about what is more or less likely) with empirical observations, in order to make a decision in the face of ambiguity. Or see here for a slightly more mathematical explanation, with examples.