CIA unable to underestimate the effect of drone war

Mark Mazzetti, "A Secret Deal on Drones, Sealed in Blood", NYT 4/6/2013:

"John E. McLaughlin, then the C.I.A.’s deputy director, who the 9/11 commission reported had raised concerns about the C.I.A.’s being in charge of the Predator, said: “You can’t underestimate the cultural change that comes with gaining lethal authority."

GeorgeW, who sent in the quotation, added "I wonder if failure to underestimate contributed to the CIA difficulties associated with the drone issue".

Here are a few of the posts over the years where we've discussed various people's (in)ability to over- or underestimate things:

"Multiplex negatio ferblondiat", 7/14/2007 "Weird logic and Bayesian semantics", 7/15/2007 "'Cannot underestimate' = 'must not underestimate'?", 11/6/2008 "Underestimate, overestimate, whatever", 3/23/2011 "(Not) Underestimating the Irish Famine", 9/6/2012 "Overestimating, underestimating, whatever", 2/11/2013

A friend recently told me that she finds Language Log to be invaluable as a cure for insomnia. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration, but for those of you who find this off-label prescription to be an effective therapy, let me recommend a long list of fine sleep aids about the more general question of over- and under-negation: "No post too obscure to escape notice".