“Very interesting failed attempt at manipulation on Polymarket today”

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 2024-09-07

Rajiv Sethi points to this thread and writes:

Very interesting failed attempt at manipulation on Polymarket today (would have been very profitable if successful).

I have to say, this sort of thing creeps me out. Recreational or business-hedging betting on elections doesn’t bother me, but this idea of manipulating sources of information . . . it seems wrong somehow. Not just wrong in the same way that it would wrong, and possibly illegal, to manipulate sports-betting odds or stock prices or whatever, but more wrong in the sense of interfering with democracy.

I expect many of you will disagree with me and say it’s just a funny story—and it is a funny story—and I can’t offer strong arguments in favor of my reaction to this one, but here it is.