Some references and discussions on the foundations of probability—not the math so much as its connection to the real world, including the claim that “Pr(aliens exist on Neptune that can rap battle) = .137”
Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 2024-10-07
Summary:
Someone pointed me to this recent post by Scott Alexander on probability and uncertainty where he makes the case that the Bayesian or probabilistic conception of uncertainty, for all its flaws, is better than the alternative of throwing up your … Continue reading →