“Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of US Elections”
Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 2024-10-14
Summary:
Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons, and Jesse Shapiro write: Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic … Continue reading →