The value of remembering past failures: the example of Mars One

Palko writes:

It has largely been shoved down the memory hole, but in 2014 and 2015, virtually every major news organization was credulously reporting on a laughably obvious scam project that claimed it was on the verge of setting up a self-sustaining Martian colony funded by a reality TV show. The story was a triumph of lazy, sensationalistic journalism, fertilized by silly techno-optimism and Muskian bullshit about saving the planet by leaving.

Mars One has ended up where every reasonable person knew it would, but it’s still worth remembering, if only to remind us to be more skeptical about the next “next big thing.”

Palko gives links to a series of posts from 2015, along with the final report from 2019, Mars One Ends In Bankruptcy, from the journalist Elmo Keep.

Here’s the thing.

From a scientific or technological standpoint, it wouldn’t be quite right to call Mars One a “failure,” as it was never a serious plan to begin with. If Nasa tries to reach Mars but the rocket blows up, that’s a failure. If I start digging in my basement but I never reach China as planned, that’s not a “failure,” really, as there was nothing there to succeed or fail in the first place. As science or technology, Mars One was not a failure; it was a publicity stunt.

As a publicity stunt, Mars One was a big success–for awhile. Indeed, given how ridiculous it always was from a technical perspective, it was a very successful publicity stunt. Ultimately I’m not sure if Mars One should be considered a failure as a publicity stunt. Yes, it finally folded up, but it stayed afloat for awhile, which I guess must have been much of the point. Theranos, that was a failure–people actually went to prison for it. Although it was in some part a public-relations success, in that some of the participants walked out richer than when they came in.

What Palko’s getting at in his above-linked post–and I agree with him on this–is that failures (however they are defined) should not be forgotten. We need to avoid the selection bias by which failures are forgotten or explained away, thus giving an unrealistic sense of the probability of success.

On this blog we write a lot about struggles and failure–our own and others’–and this is one reason why.