Home Statistics and Visualization Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science He can’t pay his bills but he has a second home . . . Whassup with that?

He can’t pay his bills but he has a second home . . . Whassup with that?

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 2025-04-05

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Whassup with those economists who predicted a recession that then didn’t happen?

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/05/31/whassup-with-those-economists-who-predicted-a-recession-that-then-didnt-happen/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 05/31/2024

economics
Whassup with the FDA approval of that Alzheimer’s drug? A “disgraceful decision” or a good idea?

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/06/12/whassup-with-the-fda-approval-of-that-alzheimers-drug-a-disgraceful-decision-or-a-good-idea/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 06/12/2021

decision
Frustration with published results that can’t be reproduced, and journals that don’t seem to care

http://andrewgelman.com/2016/12/04/30682/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 12/04/2016

decision theory
“On March 14th at 7pm ET, thought leader and Harvard professor Steven Pinker will release digital collectibles of his famous idea that ‘Free speech is fundamental.'”

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2023/03/20/on-march-14th-at-7pm-et-thought-leader-and-harvard-professor-steven-pinker-will-release-digital-collectibles-of-his-famous-idea-that-free-speech-is-fundamental/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 03/20/2023

economics
“It’s as if you went into a bathroom in a bar and saw a guy pissing on his shoes, and instead of thinking he has some problem with his aim, you suppose he has a positive utility for getting his shoes wet”

http://andrewgelman.com/2014/09/10/notion-geocentric-universe-come-criticism-copernican-astronomy/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 09/10/2014

decision theory economics sociology zombies
In making minimal corrections and not acknowledging that he made these errors, Rajan is dealing with the symptoms but not the underlying problem, which is that he’s processing recent history via conventional wisdom.

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/04/16/in-making-minimal-corrections-and-not-acknowledging-that-he-made-these-errors-rajan-is-dealing-with-the-symptoms-but-not-the-underlying-problem-which-is-that-hes-processing-recent-history-via-conv/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 04/16/2021

economics
More bad news in the scientific literature: A 3-day study is called “long term,” and nobody even seems to notice the problem. Whassup with that??

http://andrewgelman.com/2018/04/05/particular-corner-experimental-social-psychology-long-term-3-days-maybe-5-minutes/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 04/05/2018
“Why the New Pollution Literature is Credible” . . . but I’m still guessing that the effects are being overestimated:

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/04/02/why-the-new-pollution-literature-is-credible-but-im-still-guessing-that-the-effects-are-being-overestimated/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 04/02/2022

bayesian
She sent a letter pointing out problems with a published article, the reviewers agreed that her comments were valid, but the journal didn’t publish her letter because “the policy among editors is not to accept comments.”

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/07/08/she-sent-a-letter-pointing-out-problems-with-a-published-article-the-reviewers-agreed-that-her-comments-were-valid-but-the-journal-didnt-publish-her-letter-because-the-policy-among-editors-is-no/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 07/08/2021

uncategorized
The problem of media concentration/deregulation “is usually treated as a series of unrelated problems, much like a cocaine addict who complains about his drug problem, bankruptcy, divorce, and encounters with loan sharks, but who never makes a causal connection between the items on the list”

http://andrewgelman.com/2017/12/19/problem-media-concentration-deregulation-usually-treated-series-unrelated-problems-much-like-cocaine-addict-complains-drug-problem-bankruptcy-divorce-encount/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 12/19/2017
Whassup with Why We Sleep?

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/12/26/whassup-with-why-we-sleep/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 12/26/2019

health
“Instead of the intended message that being poor is hard, the takeaway is that rich people aren’t very good with money.”

http://andrewgelman.com/2013/09/24/instead-of-the-intended-message-that-being-poor-is-hard-the-takeaway-is-that-rich-people-arent-very-good-with-money/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 09/24/2013

sociology economics
You can read for free but comments cost money . . . or is it the other way around?

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/10/27/you-can-read-for-free-but-comments-cost-money-or-is-it-the-other-way-around/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 10/27/2022

economics
This journal is commissioning a sequel to one of my smash hits. How much will they pay me for it? You can share negotiation strategies in the comments section.

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/07/31/this-journal-is-commissioning-a-sequel-to-one-of-my-smash-hits-how-much-will-they-pay-me-for-it-you-can-share-negotiation-strategies-in-the-comments-section/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 07/31/2022

economics
He wants some readings on the replication crisis that are accessible to college freshmen in economics

http://andrewgelman.com/2017/08/21/wants-readings-replication-crisis-accessible-college-freshmen-economics/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 08/21/2017
A problem with that implicit-racism thing

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/12/27/a-problem-with-that-implicit-racism-thing/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 12/27/2021

economics
When doing causal inference, define your treatment decision and then consider the consequences that flow from it

http://andrewgelman.com/2016/05/26/28949/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 05/26/2016

causal inference
No, I don’t think that this study offers good evidence that installing air filters in classrooms has surprisingly large educational benefits.

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/01/09/no-i-dont-think-that-this-study-offers-good-evidence-that-installing-air-filters-in-classrooms-has-surprisingly-large-educational-benefits/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 01/09/2020

causal
Bayesian decision analysis for the drug-approval process (NSFW)

http://andrewgelman.com/2015/12/14/bayesian-decision-analysis-for-the-drug-approval-process/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 12/14/2015

bayesian statistics
Whassup with the dots on our graph?

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/10/18/whassup-with-the-dots-on-our-graph/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 10/18/2020

political
Whassup with the haphazard coronavirus statistics?

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/03/21/whassup-with-the-haphazard-coronavirus-statistics/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 03/21/2021

health
My namesake doesn’t seem to understand the principles of decision analysis

http://andrewgelman.com/2016/01/18/my-namesake-doesnt-seem-to-understand-the-principles-of-decision-analysis/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 01/18/2016

decision theory
Did Chinese laborers on the Yangtze pay someone to whip them? Why can’t political scientists and economists resist telling this evidence-free story? And why do they keep embellishing it?

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/02/27/did-chinese-laborers-on-the-yangtze-pay-someone-to-whip-them-and-why-cant-political-scientists-and-economists-resist-telling-this-evidence-free-story/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 02/27/2022

economics
Again on the problems with technology that makes it more convenient to gamble away your money

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/04/18/again-on-the-problems-with-technology-that-makes-it-more-convenient-to-gamble-away-your-money/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 04/18/2022

economics
It’s not an echo chamber, but it’s an echo chamber . . . How does that work, exactly?

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/09/05/its-not-an-echo-chamber-but-its-an-echo-chamber-how-does-that-work-exactly/

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 09/05/2021

economics