The Democrats were lucky that the election was last week and not next week.

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 2025-11-13

The headline result from last week’s elections was: Democrats win across the board, none of the elections were close, they won the contested downballot races too, and the wins came across the Democrats’ ideological spectrum from center to left.

If the exact same results came next week, the story would be: Democrats win fluke election amid Epstein scandal, so the win wouldn’t fully count in pundit-world.

OK, the consultants in the know, the ones who are doing polling and strategy for the parties in the key races, they would’ve known that the Democratic candidates were far ahead even before the latest email dump, but in the broader world there would’ve been a bit attempt to attribute to their wins to the Epstein story, indeed so much that I’m sure we’d be hearing from the usual suspects that it was all just one more conspiracy.

Not a big deal, I just wanted to note this as the dog that didn’t happen to bark.