Reserving with negative increments in triangles

A few months ago, I did published a post on negative values in triangles, and how to deal with them, when using a Poisson regression (the post was published in French). The idea was to use a translation technique: Fit a model not on ‘s but on , for some , Use that model to make predictions, and then translate those predictions, This is what was done to get the following graph, where a Poisson regression was fitted. Black points are ‘s while blue [...]