NRL Predictions for Round 26

Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Roosters 9.58 3.08 6.50 Storm 9.15 6.15 3.00 Panthers 7.56 14.73 -7.20 Sharks 7.02 2.94 4.10 Sea Eagles 4.14 -0.48 4.60 Bulldogs 2.45 -13.35 15.80 Cowboys 1.58 2.47 -0.90 Broncos 0.61 9.07 -8.50 Knights -1.92 1.84 -3.80 Warriors -3.95 -0.07 -3.90 Dolphins -5.26 -7.09 1.80 Eels -5.37 0.14 -5.50 Rabbitohs -5.66 0.87 -6.50 Dragons -5.68 -6.93 1.20 Raiders -6.86 -4.31 -2.50 Titans -7.21 -7.89 0.70 Wests Tigers -12.16 -13.15 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 188 matches played, 115 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.2%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Aug 22 34 – 26 -16.20 FALSE 2 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Aug 23 18 – 34 2.90 FALSE 3 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 23 30 – 24 9.40 TRUE 4 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 24 22 – 18 -13.50 FALSE 5 Storm vs. Dolphins Aug 24 48 – 6 14.10 TRUE 6 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Aug 24 16 – 36 1.90 FALSE 7 Titans vs. Roosters Aug 25 22 – 48 -12.10 TRUE 8 Dragons vs. Sharks Aug 25 10 – 38 -7.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Cowboys vs. Storm Aug 29 Storm -4.60 2 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 30 Bulldogs 1.30 3 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Aug 30 Panthers 16.20 4 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 31 Eels 3.30 5 Dolphins vs. Broncos Aug 31 Broncos -5.90 6 Sharks vs. Warriors Aug 31 Sharks 18.00 7 Knights vs. Titans Sep 01 Knights 8.30 8 Roosters vs. Raiders Sep 01 Roosters 19.40

 

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