Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 4

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Wellington 9.09 10.63 -1.50 Hawke’s Bay 6.95 6.09 0.90 Canterbury 6.73 6.01 0.70 Taranaki 5.54 5.21 0.30 Tasman 4.49 2.17 2.30 Waikato 4.35 5.30 -1.00 North Harbour 4.01 3.06 0.90 Bay of Plenty 2.47 3.52 -1.10 Auckland 2.29 3.00 -0.70 Otago -2.20 -3.26 1.10 Northland -5.14 -4.29 -0.90 Counties Manukau -7.54 -5.22 -2.30 Southland -10.38 -10.05 -0.30 Manawatu -17.19 -18.73 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Aug 23 55 – 30 13.40 TRUE 2 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Aug 24 3 – 48 -4.40 TRUE 3 Auckland vs. Canterbury Aug 24 21 – 27 -0.00 TRUE 4 Southland vs. Taranaki Aug 24 24 – 39 -12.30 TRUE 5 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 25 31 – 26 -3.80 FALSE 6 Wellington vs. Manawatu Aug 25 39 – 31 32.40 TRUE 7 North Harbour vs. Waikato Aug 25 43 – 29 0.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Northland vs. Southland Aug 30 Northland 8.20 2 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 31 North Harbour 14.60 3 Taranaki vs. Otago Aug 31 Taranaki 10.70 4 Waikato vs. Auckland Aug 31 Waikato 5.10 5 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 31 Tasman 5.00 6 Canterbury vs. Wellington Sep 01 Canterbury 0.60 7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 01 Hawke’s Bay -21.10 8 Waikato vs. Northland Sep 04 Waikato 12.50

 

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