Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bulls 8.26 -0.48 8.70 Lions 7.21 -4.44 11.60 Sharks 3.64 0.96 2.70 Cheetahs 3.45 6.37 -2.90 Pumas -1.22 4.30 -5.50 Western Province -1.89 0.59 -2.50 Griquas -5.15 -2.59 -2.60 Griffons -24.30 -14.70 -9.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 24 47 – 24 15.40 TRUE 2 Western Province vs. Sharks Aug 24 23 – 31 -0.60 TRUE 3 Cheetahs vs. Lions Aug 25 21 – 38 3.40 FALSE 4 Griffons vs. Pumas Aug 25 26 – 45 -19.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 30 Cheetahs -5.10 2 Bulls vs. Lions Aug 31 Bulls 4.50 3 Sharks vs. Griffons Aug 31 Sharks 31.40 4 Western Province vs. Pumas Sep 01 Western Province 2.80

 

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