Top 14 Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 9.29 8.76 0.50 Toulon 5.44 5.32 0.10 Stade Rochelais 4.73 4.85 -0.10 Bordeaux Begles 4.43 3.96 0.50 Racing 92 2.79 2.75 0.00 Stade Francais 1.39 1.86 -0.50 Clermont 1.38 0.41 1.00 Section Paloise 0.41 1.38 -1.00 Lyon 0.24 -0.18 0.40 Castres Olympique -0.13 -0.09 -0.00 USA Perpignan -1.05 -0.66 -0.40 Bayonne -1.30 -1.69 0.40 Montpellier -1.37 -0.96 -0.40 Vannes -10.52 -10.00 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bayonne vs. USA Perpignan Sep 07 21 – 9 5.50 TRUE 2 Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 Sep 08 31 – 28 3.70 TRUE 3 Clermont vs. Section Paloise Sep 08 39 – 7 5.50 TRUE 4 Montpellier vs. Lyon Sep 08 22 – 26 5.70 FALSE 5 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais Sep 08 46 – 26 8.60 TRUE 6 Stade Rochelais vs. Toulon Sep 09 19 – 15 6.00 TRUE 7 Vannes vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 09 18 – 43 -12.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Toulon vs. Castres Olympique Sep 14 Toulon 12.10 2 Racing 92 vs. Clermont Sep 15 Racing 92 7.90 3 Section Paloise vs. Bayonne Sep 15 Section Paloise 8.20 4 Stade Francais vs. Vannes Sep 15 Stade Francais 18.40 5 USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier Sep 15 USA Perpignan 6.80 6 Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles Sep 15 Lyon 2.30 7 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Rochelais Sep 16 Stade Toulousain 11.10

 

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