NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Storm 10.20 6.15 4.00 Roosters 8.07 3.08 5.00 Sharks 7.14 2.94 4.20 Panthers 7.13 14.73 -7.60 Cowboys 4.70 2.47 2.20 Sea Eagles 3.63 -0.48 4.10 Bulldogs -0.72 -13.35 12.60 Knights -0.87 1.84 -2.70 Warriors -2.75 -0.07 -2.70 Dolphins -3.15 -7.09 3.90 Broncos -3.54 9.07 -12.60 Eels -3.54 0.14 -3.70 Raiders -5.26 -4.31 -0.90 Rabbitohs -5.81 0.87 -6.70 Dragons -6.05 -6.93 0.90 Titans -7.25 -7.89 0.60 Wests Tigers -13.94 -13.15 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 204 matches played, 123 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Broncos vs. Storm Sep 05 12 – 50 -7.10 TRUE 2 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Sep 06 26 – 60 -3.80 TRUE 3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 06 28 – 36 -11.30 TRUE 4 Dragons vs. Raiders Sep 07 24 – 26 2.80 FALSE 5 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Sep 07 6 – 44 2.30 FALSE 6 Panthers vs. Titans Sep 07 18 – 12 19.00 TRUE 7 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Sep 08 20 – 40 2.10 FALSE 8 Knights vs. Dolphins Sep 08 14 – 6 4.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Panthers vs. Roosters Sep 13 Panthers 2.10 2 Storm vs. Sharks Sep 14 Storm 6.10 3 Cowboys vs. Knights Sep 14 Cowboys 8.60 4 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 15 Sea Eagles -1.30

 

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