Currie Cup Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Lions 11.23 -4.44 15.70 Bulls 6.54 -0.48 7.00 Sharks 5.05 0.96 4.10 Cheetahs 4.14 6.37 -2.20 Western Province -1.94 0.59 -2.50 Griquas -2.85 -2.59 -0.30 Pumas -4.16 4.30 -8.50 Griffons -28.01 -14.70 -13.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Griquas vs. Western Province Sep 06 37 – 29 1.20 TRUE 2 Lions vs. Griffons Sep 07 62 – 5 39.60 TRUE 3 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Sep 07 14 – 41 -0.20 TRUE 4 Sharks vs. Bulls Sep 08 24 – 28 3.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Lions vs. Cheetahs Sep 14 Lions 10.60 2 Bulls vs. Sharks Sep 15 Bulls 5.00

 

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