AFL Predictions for Finals Week 2

Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Hawthorn Hawks 20.27 -11.08 31.30 Western Bulldogs 17.88 6.04 11.80 Brisbane Lions 17.54 17.47 0.10 Sydney Swans 15.39 9.23 6.20 Geelong Cats 15.36 10.50 4.90 GWS Giants 10.95 12.60 -1.70 Port Adelaide Power 8.94 8.83 0.10 Collingwood 6.73 14.87 -8.10 Fremantle Dockers 5.35 0.40 5.00 Carlton Blues 5.11 9.73 -4.60 Adelaide Crows 3.14 9.56 -6.40 Melbourne Demons 1.12 13.91 -12.80 St Kilda Saints 0.29 -0.63 0.90 Gold Coast Suns -6.56 -4.60 -2.00 Essendon Bombers -10.33 -17.70 7.40 Richmond Tigers -31.43 -6.13 -25.30 West Coast Eagles -36.56 -43.10 6.50 North Melbourne -39.02 -25.73 -13.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 211 matches played, 134 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.5%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Port Adelaide Power vs. Geelong Cats Sep 05 54 – 138 13.40 FALSE 2 Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sep 06 62 – 99 -7.50 TRUE 3 Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants Sep 07 88 – 82 15.50 TRUE 4 Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues Sep 07 99 – 71 19.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sep 13 Hawthorn Hawks -2.30 2 GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions Sep 14 GWS Giants 2.40

 

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