Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 6

Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Wellington 9.92 10.63 -0.70 Canterbury 5.38 6.01 -0.60 Taranaki 5.34 5.21 0.10 Bay of Plenty 5.29 3.52 1.80 Waikato 5.17 5.30 -0.10 Hawke’s Bay 4.52 6.09 -1.60 Tasman 3.74 2.17 1.60 Auckland 3.13 3.00 0.10 North Harbour 2.94 3.06 -0.10 Otago -1.87 -3.26 1.40 Counties Manukau -4.15 -5.22 1.10 Northland -5.36 -4.29 -1.10 Southland -10.09 -10.05 -0.00 Manawatu -20.49 -18.73 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 87.5%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Sep 06 68 – 14 25.30 TRUE 2 Wellington vs. Southland Sep 07 36 – 12 23.70 TRUE 3 Auckland vs. North Harbour Sep 07 36 – 32 2.90 TRUE 4 Otago vs. Canterbury Sep 07 24 – 25 -6.30 TRUE 5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Sep 07 16 – 34 6.90 FALSE 6 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 08 36 – 32 2.90 TRUE 7 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Sep 08 25 – 14 2.10 TRUE 8 Otago vs. Wellington Sep 11 28 – 32 -10.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Southland vs. Canterbury Sep 13 Canterbury -12.50 2 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Sep 14 Bay of Plenty 2.90 3 North Harbour vs. Manawatu Sep 14 North Harbour 26.40 4 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 14 Waikato 3.60 5 Counties Manukau vs. Otago Sep 15 Counties Manukau 0.70 6 Tasman vs. Wellington Sep 15 Wellington -3.20 7 Northland vs. Auckland Sep 15 Auckland -5.50 8 Manawatu vs. Southland Sep 18 Southland -7.40

 

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