Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 5

Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Wellington 12.13 10.63 1.50 Waikato 6.28 5.30 1.00 Hawke’s Bay 5.35 6.09 -0.70 Canterbury 4.52 6.01 -1.50 Taranaki 4.31 5.21 -0.90 Tasman 3.35 2.17 1.20 Bay of Plenty 2.35 3.52 -1.20 Auckland 2.09 3.00 -0.90 North Harbour 2.06 3.06 -1.00 Otago -2.36 -3.26 0.90 Counties Manukau -4.21 -5.22 1.00 Northland -5.33 -4.29 -1.00 Southland -9.07 -10.05 1.00 Manawatu -17.98 -18.73 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Northland vs. Southland Aug 30 26 – 31 8.80 FALSE 2 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 31 33 – 36 11.30 FALSE 3 Taranaki vs. Otago Aug 31 22 – 18 11.50 TRUE 4 Waikato vs. Auckland Aug 31 39 – 21 5.30 TRUE 5 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 31 34 – 15 1.60 TRUE 6 Canterbury vs. Wellington Sep 01 21 – 46 -1.60 TRUE 7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 01 26 – 38 -21.80 TRUE 8 Waikato vs. Northland Sep 04 34 – 19 14.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Sep 06 Bay of Plenty 23.30 2 Wellington vs. Southland Sep 07 Wellington 24.20 3 Auckland vs. North Harbour Sep 07 Auckland 3.00 4 Otago vs. Canterbury Sep 07 Canterbury -3.90 5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Sep 07 Hawke’s Bay 5.00 6 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 08 Taranaki 1.00 7 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Sep 08 Counties Manukau 4.10 8 Otago vs. Wellington Sep 11 Wellington -11.50

 

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