Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Saracens 9.68 9.68 -0.00 Bristol 9.58 9.58 -0.00 Northampton Saints 7.50 7.50 0.00 Bath 5.55 5.55 -0.00 Sale Sharks 4.73 4.73 0.00 Leicester Tigers 3.27 3.27 -0.00 Exeter Chiefs 1.23 1.23 0.00 Harlequins -2.73 -2.73 -0.00 Gloucester -9.04 -9.04 -0.00 Newcastle Falcons -19.02 -19.02 0.00

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Sep 21 Bath 4.60 2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Sep 21 Bristol -22.10 3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 22 Exeter Chiefs 4.50 4 Gloucester vs. Saracens Sep 22 Saracens -12.20 5 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Sep 23 Sale Sharks 14.00 The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1 first appeared on Stats Chat.