United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 1

Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 12.09 12.09 -0.00 Glasgow 9.39 9.39 -0.00 Munster 9.28 9.28 0.00 Bulls 8.83 8.83 0.00 Stormers 6.75 6.75 -0.00 Lions 6.73 6.73 0.00 Ulster 2.52 2.52 -0.00 Benetton 1.02 1.02 -0.00 Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00 Edinburgh 0.09 0.09 0.00 Connacht -0.76 -0.76 0.00 Ospreys -2.51 -2.51 0.00 Cardiff Rugby -2.55 -2.55 0.00 Sharks -2.94 -2.94 0.00 Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00 Scarlets -10.65 -10.65 -0.00 Dragons -15.41 -15.41 -0.00 Zebre -16.17 -16.17 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Zebre Sep 21 Cardiff Rugby 19.10 2 Edinburgh vs. Leinster Sep 21 Leinster -6.50 3 Sharks vs. Lions Sep 21 Lions -7.20 4 Dragons vs. Ospreys Sep 22 Ospreys -10.40 5 Stormers vs. Bulls Sep 22 Stormers 0.40 6 Munster vs. Connacht Sep 22 Munster 12.50 7 Benetton vs. Scarlets Sep 22 Benetton 17.20 8 Ulster vs. Glasgow Sep 22 Glasgow -1.40

 

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