Top 14 Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 9.29 8.76 0.50 Toulon 5.01 5.32 -0.30 Stade Rochelais 4.73 4.85 -0.10 Bordeaux Begles 4.45 3.96 0.50 Racing 92 3.10 2.75 0.30 Clermont 1.08 0.41 0.70 Section Paloise 0.97 1.38 -0.40 Stade Francais 0.77 1.86 -1.10 Castres Olympique 0.30 -0.09 0.40 Lyon 0.22 -0.18 0.40 Montpellier -0.42 -0.96 0.50 Bayonne -1.85 -1.69 -0.20 USA Perpignan -2.00 -0.66 -1.30 Vannes -9.91 -10.00 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Toulon vs. Castres Olympique Sep 14 30 – 28 12.10 TRUE 2 Racing 92 vs. Clermont Sep 15 33 – 20 7.90 TRUE 3 Section Paloise vs. Bayonne Sep 15 51 – 29 8.20 TRUE 4 Stade Francais vs. Vannes Sep 15 34 – 31 18.40 TRUE 5 USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier Sep 15 7 – 26 6.80 FALSE 6 Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles Sep 15 28 – 26 2.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 21 Stade Toulousain -3.20 2 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan Sep 22 Castres Olympique 8.80 3 Clermont vs. Bayonne Sep 22 Clermont 9.40 4 Stade Rochelais vs. Section Paloise Sep 22 Stade Rochelais 10.30 5 Vannes vs. Lyon Sep 22 Lyon -3.60 6 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Sep 22 Bordeaux Begles 7.90 7 Stade Francais vs. Toulon Sep 23 Stade Francais 2.30

 

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