NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Storm 11.46 6.15 5.30 Panthers 8.22 14.73 -6.50 Roosters 6.98 3.08 3.90 Sharks 5.88 2.94 2.90 Cowboys 4.93 2.47 2.50 Sea Eagles 3.68 -0.48 4.20 Bulldogs -0.76 -13.35 12.60 Knights -1.10 1.84 -2.90 Warriors -2.75 -0.07 -2.70 Dolphins -3.15 -7.09 3.90 Broncos -3.54 9.07 -12.60 Eels -3.54 0.14 -3.70 Raiders -5.26 -4.31 -0.90 Rabbitohs -5.81 0.87 -6.70 Dragons -6.05 -6.93 0.90 Titans -7.25 -7.89 0.60 Wests Tigers -13.94 -13.15 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 208 matches played, 127 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.1%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Panthers vs. Roosters Sep 13 30 – 10 2.10 TRUE 2 Storm vs. Sharks Sep 14 37 – 10 6.10 TRUE 3 Cowboys vs. Knights Sep 14 28 – 16 8.60 TRUE 4 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 15 22 – 24 -1.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 20 Sharks 4.00 2 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Sep 21 Roosters 6.30

 

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