AFL Predictions for the Preliminary Final

Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Hawthorn Hawks 19.68 -11.08 30.80 Brisbane Lions 18.35 17.47 0.90 Western Bulldogs 17.88 6.04 11.80 Sydney Swans 15.39 9.23 6.20 Geelong Cats 15.36 10.50 4.90 GWS Giants 10.13 12.60 -2.50 Port Adelaide Power 9.53 8.83 0.70 Collingwood 6.73 14.87 -8.10 Fremantle Dockers 5.35 0.40 5.00 Carlton Blues 5.11 9.73 -4.60 Adelaide Crows 3.14 9.56 -6.40 Melbourne Demons 1.12 13.91 -12.80 St Kilda Saints 0.29 -0.63 0.90 Gold Coast Suns -6.56 -4.60 -2.00 Essendon Bombers -10.33 -17.70 7.40 Richmond Tigers -31.43 -6.13 -25.30 West Coast Eagles -36.56 -43.10 6.50 North Melbourne -39.02 -25.73 -13.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 213 matches played, 134 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sep 13 75 – 72 -2.30 FALSE 2 GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions Sep 14 100 – 105 2.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Sydney Swans vs. Port Adelaide Power Sep 20 Sydney Swans 14.90 2 Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Sep 21 Brisbane Lions -3.00

 

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