Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 7

Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Wellington 9.40 10.63 -1.20 Waikato 7.72 5.30 2.40 Canterbury 5.88 6.01 -0.10 Bay of Plenty 4.38 3.52 0.90 Taranaki 4.35 5.21 -0.90 North Harbour 4.06 3.06 1.00 Hawke’s Bay 3.67 6.09 -2.40 Tasman 3.41 2.17 1.20 Auckland 3.33 3.00 0.30 Counties Manukau -3.54 -5.22 1.70 Northland -4.61 -4.29 -0.30 Otago -4.93 -3.26 -1.70 Southland -10.79 -10.05 -0.70 Manawatu -18.87 -18.73 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Southland vs. Canterbury Sep 13 29 – 41 -13.10 TRUE 2 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Sep 14 33 – 20 1.30 TRUE 3 North Harbour vs. Manawatu Sep 14 58 – 19 24.80 TRUE 4 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 14 50 – 5 2.20 TRUE 5 Counties Manukau vs. Otago Sep 15 45 – 17 1.00 TRUE 6 Tasman vs. Wellington Sep 15 28 – 15 -5.50 FALSE 7 Northland vs. Auckland Sep 15 17 – 24 -4.30 TRUE 8 Manawatu vs. Southland Sep 18 26 – 21 -6.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Sep 20 Hawke’s Bay 2.30 2 Northland vs. North Harbour Sep 21 North Harbour -5.70 3 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Sep 21 Canterbury 12.40 4 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 21 Wellington 8.00 5 Waikato vs. Tasman Sep 22 Waikato 7.30 6 Auckland vs. Southland Sep 22 Auckland 17.10 7 Manawatu vs. Otago Sep 22 Otago -10.90 8 Taranaki vs. North Harbour Sep 25 Taranaki 3.30

 

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