Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bristol 9.47 9.58 -0.10 Saracens 9.36 9.68 -0.30 Bath 7.30 5.55 1.70 Northampton Saints 5.75 7.50 -1.70 Leicester Tigers 4.02 3.27 0.70 Sale Sharks 3.43 4.73 -1.30 Exeter Chiefs 0.48 1.23 -0.70 Harlequins -1.43 -2.73 1.30 Gloucester -8.72 -9.04 0.30 Newcastle Falcons -18.91 -19.02 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Sep 21 38 – 16 4.60 TRUE 2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Sep 21 3 – 24 -22.10 TRUE 3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 22 14 – 17 4.50 FALSE 4 Gloucester vs. Saracens Sep 22 26 – 35 -12.20 TRUE 5 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Sep 23 12 – 11 14.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bristol vs. Gloucester Sep 28 Bristol 24.70 2 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Sep 29 Harlequins 24.00 3 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Sep 29 Saracens 12.40 4 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 29 Northampton Saints 11.80 5 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Sep 30 Leicester Tigers 3.20

 

The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2 first appeared on Stats Chat.