It’s martingale time, baby! How to evaluate probabilistic forecasts before the event happens? Rajiv Sethi has an idea. (Hint: it involves time series.)
Stats Chat 2024-09-24
Summary:
My Columbia econ colleague writes: The following figure shows how the likelihood of victory for the two major party candidates has evolved since August 6—the day after Kamala Harris officially secured the nomination of her party—according to three statistical models … Continue reading →