Top 14 Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 9.46 8.76 0.70 Stade Rochelais 5.46 4.85 0.60 Toulon 5.39 5.32 0.10 Bordeaux Begles 4.88 3.96 0.90 Racing 92 2.67 2.75 -0.10 Clermont 1.47 0.41 1.10 Castres Olympique 0.67 -0.09 0.80 Section Paloise 0.42 1.38 -1.00 Stade Francais 0.40 1.86 -1.50 Lyon -0.34 -0.18 -0.20 Montpellier -0.78 -0.96 0.20 Bayonne -2.25 -1.69 -0.60 USA Perpignan -2.37 -0.66 -1.70 Vannes -9.36 -10.00 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 21 11 – 20 -3.00 TRUE 2 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan Sep 22 27 – 12 8.80 TRUE 3 Clermont vs. Bayonne Sep 22 26 – 10 9.40 TRUE 4 Stade Rochelais vs. Section Paloise Sep 22 49 – 25 10.40 TRUE 5 Vannes vs. Lyon Sep 22 30 – 20 -3.60 FALSE 6 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Sep 22 52 – 34 7.90 TRUE 7 Stade Francais vs. Toulon Sep 23 10 – 14 2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont Sep 28 USA Perpignan 2.70 2 Bayonne vs. Montpellier Sep 29 Bayonne 5.00 3 Lyon vs. Castres Olympique Sep 29 Lyon 5.50 4 Racing 92 vs. Stade Rochelais Sep 29 Racing 92 3.70 5 Toulon vs. Vannes Sep 29 Toulon 21.20 6 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Sep 29 Section Paloise 6.50 7 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Sep 30 Stade Toulousain 11.10

 

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