Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 8

Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Wellington 10.02 10.63 -0.60 Taranaki 7.44 5.21 2.20 Canterbury 5.26 6.01 -0.80 Waikato 4.33 5.30 -1.00 Bay of Plenty 4.14 3.52 0.60 Hawke’s Bay 3.44 6.09 -2.70 Tasman 3.14 2.17 1.00 Auckland 2.04 3.00 -1.00 North Harbour 1.79 3.06 -1.30 Northland -2.59 -4.29 1.70 Otago -2.59 -3.26 0.70 Counties Manukau -4.47 -5.22 0.70 Southland -9.08 -10.05 1.00 Manawatu -19.39 -18.73 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Sep 20 19 – 63 3.90 FALSE 2 Northland vs. North Harbour Sep 21 47 – 24 -4.30 FALSE 3 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Sep 21 36 – 28 14.20 TRUE 4 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 21 30 – 25 10.10 TRUE 5 Waikato vs. Tasman Sep 22 25 – 27 6.10 FALSE 6 Auckland vs. Southland Sep 22 27 – 19 16.10 TRUE 7 Manawatu vs. Otago Sep 22 10 – 28 -12.50 TRUE 8 Taranaki vs. North Harbour Sep 25 31 – 25 9.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Sep 27 Wellington -11.50 2 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Sep 28 Bay of Plenty 9.70 3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Auckland Sep 28 Hawke’s Bay 4.40 4 Otago vs. Tasman Sep 28 Tasman -2.70 5 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 29 Canterbury -0.50 6 Southland vs. Waikato Sep 29 Waikato -10.40 7 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Sep 29 Taranaki 29.80 8 Tasman vs. Auckland Oct 02 Tasman 4.10

 

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