United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3

Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 11.20 12.09 -0.90 Glasgow 10.36 9.39 1.00 Bulls 7.97 8.83 -0.90 Lions 7.12 6.73 0.40 Munster 6.65 9.28 -2.60 Stormers 5.49 6.75 -1.30 Ulster 2.39 2.52 -0.10 Edinburgh 1.44 0.09 1.40 Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00 Connacht -0.22 -0.76 0.50 Benetton -1.44 1.02 -2.50 Ospreys -2.18 -2.51 0.30 Sharks -2.67 -2.94 0.30 Cardiff Rugby -2.97 -2.55 -0.40 Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00 Scarlets -10.04 -10.65 0.60 Zebre -13.31 -16.17 2.90 Dragons -14.08 -15.41 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Glasgow vs. Benetton Sep 28 42 – 10 14.80 TRUE 2 Leinster vs. Dragons Sep 28 34 – 6 31.60 TRUE 3 Lions vs. Ulster Sep 28 35 – 22 9.40 TRUE 4 Bulls vs. Edinburgh Sep 29 22 – 16 13.70 TRUE 5 Zebre vs. Munster Sep 29 42 – 33 -18.10 FALSE 6 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Sep 29 15 – 24 -3.30 TRUE 7 Connacht vs. Sharks Sep 29 36 – 30 8.50 TRUE 8 Ospreys vs. Stormers Sep 29 37 – 24 -4.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Glasgow Oct 05 Glasgow -7.80 2 Scarlets vs. Connacht Oct 05 Connacht -4.30 3 Lions vs. Edinburgh Oct 05 Lions 11.20 4 Bulls vs. Ulster Oct 06 Bulls 11.10 5 Benetton vs. Leinster Oct 06 Leinster -7.10 6 Dragons vs. Sharks Oct 06 Sharks -5.90 7 Munster vs. Ospreys Oct 06 Munster 14.30 8 Zebre vs. Stormers Oct 06 Stormers -13.30

 

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