Top 14 Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 8.86 8.76 0.10 Toulon 5.95 5.32 0.60 Stade Rochelais 5.75 4.85 0.90 Bordeaux Begles 5.48 3.96 1.50 Racing 92 2.38 2.75 -0.40 Castres Olympique 0.88 -0.09 1.00 Section Paloise 0.75 1.38 -0.60 Clermont 0.47 0.41 0.10 Stade Francais 0.07 1.86 -1.80 Lyon -0.54 -0.18 -0.40 Montpellier -0.54 -0.96 0.40 USA Perpignan -1.38 -0.66 -0.70 Bayonne -2.49 -1.69 -0.80 Vannes -9.91 -10.00 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont Sep 28 33 – 3 2.70 TRUE 2 Bayonne vs. Montpellier Sep 29 28 – 27 5.00 TRUE 3 Lyon vs. Castres Olympique Sep 29 40 – 38 5.50 TRUE 4 Racing 92 vs. Stade Rochelais Sep 29 16 – 17 3.70 FALSE 5 Toulon vs. Vannes Sep 29 54 – 19 21.20 TRUE 6 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Sep 29 30 – 16 6.50 TRUE 7 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Sep 30 12 – 16 11.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Vannes vs. Racing 92 Oct 05 Racing 92 -5.80 2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne Oct 06 Bordeaux Begles 14.50 3 Stade Francais vs. Montpellier Oct 06 Stade Francais 7.10 4 Stade Rochelais vs. Lyon Oct 06 Stade Rochelais 12.80 5 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Oct 06 USA Perpignan 4.40 6 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 06 Stade Toulousain -1.50 7 Clermont vs. Toulon Oct 07 Clermont 1.00

 

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